外刊双语解析：What Is（a Pandemic）

The First World War was among the deadliest conflicts in history and killed more than 20 million people. But an outbreak of flu that began as the war ended turned out to be far more destructive. It was known as the Spanish Influenza, and infected one in three humans on Earth. It was the worst pandemic in modern history and claimed the lives of between 50 and 100 million people. 第一次世界大战是历史上最致命的冲突之一，造成2000多万人死亡。但战争结束后爆发的流感却更具破坏性。它被称为西班牙流感，地球上每三个人中就有一个感染。这是现代历史上最严重的流行病，夺去了5000万到1亿人的生命。

Now, as a new strain of coronavirus spreads across the world, when does a disease become a pandemic and if it does, what happens next?现在，随着一种新型冠状病毒在全球范围内传播，一种疾病何时会成为流行病?如果真的成为流行病，接下来会发生什么?

Disease experts use the term ‘pandemic’ when a new infection spreads to multiple countries and continents at the same time, affecting many people. That’s different from another term, ‘epidemic’, which describes an infection outbreak that’s larger than usual, but stays confined to a single location or region. 当一种新的传染病同时传播到多个国家和大洲，影响许多人时，疾病专家使用“大流行”一词。这与另一个术语“流行病”不同，“流行病”指的是比通常规模更大的传染病爆发，但只局限于一个地方或地区。

So, when does a disease officially become a pandemic?那么，什么时候一种疾病正式成为流行病呢?

The World Health Organization is the body that decides when an infectious disease formally becomes a pandemic, but that choice is not always black and white. The group’s Director-General says the WHO assesses whether to use the word ‘pandemic’ by evaluating three things. First is the geographical spread of the virus. Second is the severity of the disease caused by the virus, and lastly, the societal impact of the disease. A disease is more likely to become a pandemic if it is caused by a new strain of a virus, as is the case with Coronavirus Disease 2019 or COVID-19. The ease with which it infects people and spreads from person to person also play a role in the designation.世界卫生组织是决定一种传染病何时正式成为流行病的机构，但这种选择并不总是黑白分明的。世界卫生组织总干事说，世界卫生组织通过评估三件事来评估是否使用“大流行”这个词。首先是病毒的地理传播。第二是由病毒引起的疾病的严重程度，最后是疾病的社会影响。如果一种疾病是由一种新的病毒株引起的，就像2019年的冠状病毒病或COVID-19一样，那么这种疾病更有可能成为大流行。它容易感染人，并在人与人之间传播，这也起到了一定的作用。

Past pandemic outbreaks have typically originated from animal viruses before crossing over to humans. These can spread rapidly around the world because people do not have the immunity needed to fight the new infection. COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in March 2020, the sixth pandemic declared in about a century.过去的大流行疫情通常在传染给人类之前由动物病毒引起。这些病毒可以在世界范围内迅速传播，因为人们没有对抗新感染所需的免疫力。COVID-19于2020年3月被宣布为大流行，这是约一个世纪以来宣布的第六次大流行。

The 1918 Spanish flu was easily the deadliest flu pandemic of the 20th century, killing tens of millions of people. 1918年的西班牙流感无疑是20世纪最致命的流感大流行，导致数千万人死亡。

The Asian flu outbreak followed in 1957, killing roughly 1.1 million people around the world. Thankfully, scientists were able to develop a vaccine quickly, effectively containing its spread. 1957年爆发的亚洲流感导致全球约110万人死亡。值得庆幸的是，科学家们能够迅速研制出一种疫苗，有效地控制了病毒的传播。

Another influenza outbreak – the Hong Kong flu – started to spread from China in 1968. It was caused by a compound virus, which combined the Asian virus from ten years earlier with a form of bird flu. It killed around 1 million people – most of them older than 65. 另一场流感爆发——香港流感——于1968年开始从中国传播开来。它是由一种复合病毒引起的，这种病毒把十年前的亚洲病毒和一种禽流感病毒结合在一起。它夺去了大约100万人的生命，其中大多数年龄在65岁以上。

HIV, which was first identified as the virus behind AIDS in 1983, was also considered a pandemic. The human immunodeficiency virus severely damages the cells in your immune system and weakens your ability to fight everyday infections and disease. In the past 40 years, it’s killed 35 million people worldwide, about half of the people who were infected by the virus.1983年，艾滋病毒首次被确认为艾滋病病毒，当时也被认为是一种流行病。人类免疫缺陷病毒会严重损害你免疫系统中的细胞，削弱你对抗日常感染和疾病的能力。在过去的40年里，全世界有3500万人死于这种病毒，约占感染人数的一半。

Then in 2009, a new outbreak, initially called the swine flu, was named a pandemic. It infected nearly 61 million people, and experts estimate it killed up to 575,000 people in a single year. The WHO declared the pandemic over in August 2010, but the virus has continued to circulate as a seasonal flu ever since.然后在2009年，一个新的爆发，最初被称为猪流感，被命名为大流行。它感染了近6100万人，专家估计它在一年内杀死了57.5万人。世界卫生组织在2010年8月宣布流感大流行已经结束，但是从那时起，这种病毒就以季节性流感的形式继续传播。

In recent years, the WHO has changed how it decides whether an outbreak constitutes a pandemic, following criticism that the threat of the 2009 swine flu had been exaggerated. 近年来，世界卫生组织改变了对疫情是否构成大流行的判断方式，此前有批评称，2009年猪流感的威胁被夸大了。

Many governments stockpiled vaccines which ultimately went unused, while pharmaceutical companies profiteered from the ensuing panic. The disease turned out to be milder than was originally thought. Since then, the WHO has released a guide to manage flu pandemics at a national and international level. According to its pandemic preparedness plan, national governments are required to follow specific protocols – if a pandemic is declared – to prevent or reduce the spread of a virus. For instance, authorities at a regional and local level must fully mobilize health systems, hospitals and medical workers. In addition, healthcare providers must plan for a surge in patients, and offer protective equipment to their workforce. Governments must also limit social interaction, initiate quarantine measures and enforce isolation procedures.许多国家的政府囤积疫苗，这些疫苗最终没有被使用，而制药公司则从随之而来的恐慌中牟取暴利。事实证明，这种疾病比原先认为的要温和。从那时起，世界卫生组织发布了一份在国家和国际层面上管理流感大流行的指南。根据其大流行防备计划，如果宣布大流行以预防或减少病毒传播，则要求各国政府遵循特定的议定书。例如，地方当局必须充分动员卫生系统、医院和医务工作者。此外，医疗服务提供者必须为病人激增做好准备，并为他们的员工提供防护设备。各国政府还必须限制社会交往，采取隔离措施并执行隔离程序。

Upgrading a disease to a pandemic outbreak also has psychological implications for how we think about a disaster. According to the WHO, ‘…using the word pandemic carelessly has no tangible benefit, but it does have significant risk in terms of amplifying unnecessary and unjustified fear and stigma.’ 将一种疾病升级为大流行爆发，也会对我们如何看待灾难产生心理影响。世界卫生组织称，“……漫不经心地使用‘大流行’这个词没有任何实际好处，但它确实有显著风险，会放大不必要的、不合理的恐惧和耻辱。”

Six months before the latest coronavirus outbreak, a WHO report noted that “many countries still lack a national pandemic influenza preparedness plan.” 在最近一次冠状病毒爆发前6个月，世卫组织的一份报告指出，许多国家仍然缺乏全国性的大流行性流感防备计划。

So, what are the economic costs of a pandemic?

A previous coronavirus strain called SARS, which was detected in 2002, wasn’t widespread enough to become a pandemic. While it only infected more than 8,000 people, it still cost the global economy more than $50 billion in 2003.早在2002年就发现了一种名为SARS的冠状病毒毒株，当时它的传播范围还不够大，还没有发展成流行病。虽然它只感染了8000多人，但在2003年，它仍然使全球经济损失了500多亿美元。

You see, advances in medicine, communication and technology have brought mortality rates down. But greater trade flows and cheaper air travel have seen the world economy become ever more interconnected and that causes the costs of a pandemic to rise. 你看，医学、通讯和技术的进步降低了死亡率。但是，更大的贸易流动和更便宜的航空旅行使世界经济变得更加相互关联，这导致了大流行的成本上升。

A report now estimates that a pandemic will cost $570 billion a year. That represents 0.7% of the world’s total income. A pandemic can overwhelm global health systems. It can also force infected individuals to avoid the office or work less productively. The fear of infection spread forces people to stay apart. And that can be even more debilitating…shutting down schools, businesses and public services.现在一份报告估计，一场大流行每年将花费5700亿美元。这占世界总收入的0.7%。大流行可使全球卫生系统不堪重负。它还可以迫使受感染的人避开办公室或工作效率更低。对感染传播的恐惧迫使人们分开。而关闭学校、企业和公共服务可能会更加削弱经济。

Insurance companies must also watch developments closely. A pandemic can mean more travel claims, more hospital claims and choke up global supply chains. The impact on corporate earnings can then cascade into financial markets all around the world.保险公司也必须密切关注事态的发展。大流行可能意味着更多的旅行索赔，更多的医院索赔，并阻塞全球供应链。对公司收益的影响会波及到世界各地的金融市场。

1. 什么是冠状病毒?

What is a coronavirus?Coronaviruses are a large group of viruses that are common among animals. In rare cases, they are what scientists call zoonotic, meaning they can betransmitted (传播，动词) from animals to humans, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

冠状病毒是一大类常见于动物的病毒的总称。

据美国疾病控制和预防中心称，在极少数情况下，科学家称之为“人畜共患疾病”，这意味着它们可以从动物传染给人类。

2. 冠状病毒症状

Coronavirus symptoms

The viruses can make people sick, usually with a mild to moderate upper respiratory tract (上呼吸道) illness, similar to a common cold.

For those with a weakened immune system, the elderly and the very young, there"s a chance the virus could cause a lower, and much more serious, respiratory tract illness like a pneumonia (肺炎) or bronchitis (支气管炎).

There are a handful of human coronaviruses that are known to be deadly (致命的), such as Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome).

The Wuhan coronavirus is currently thought to be more mild than SARS and MERS and takes longer to develop symptoms. Patients to date have typically experienced a mild cough for a week followed by shortness of breath (呼吸急促). So far, around 15% to 20% of cases have become severe, requiring, for example, ventilation in the hospital.

通常表现为轻中度上呼吸道疾病，症状类似于普通感冒。对于免疫力较弱的老年人和儿童，病毒有可能导致更严重的下部呼吸道疾病，如肺炎或支气管炎。

有些冠状病毒是致命的，如中东呼吸综合征(MERS)和SARS。

目前认为，武汉冠状病毒相较SARS和MERS更为温和，潜伏时间更长。到目前为止，患者通常在一周内出现轻微咳嗽，随后出现呼吸急促症状。目前，大约15%到20%的病例病情出现恶化情况，需要入院并接受呼吸机治疗。

3. 传播途径

How it spreadsViruses can spread from human contact (接触) with animals.

When it comes to human-to-human transmission (传播，名词) of the viruses, often it happens when someone comes into contact with an infected person"s secretions (分泌物), such as droplets (小水滴，飞沫) in a cough.Depending on how virulent the virus is, a cough, sneeze or handshake could causeexposure (暴露，接触). The virus can also be transmitted by touching something an infected person has touched and then touching your mouth, nose or eyes.

病毒可通过人类与动物的接触传播。

病毒在人与人之间传播时，通常发生在接触到感染者的分泌物时，例如咳嗽时的飞沫。

根据病毒的毒力，咳嗽、打喷嚏或握手都可能导致暴露。这种病毒也可以通过触摸被感染者触摸过的东西，然后触摸嘴、鼻子或眼睛来传播。

4. 感染人群

Who is affected?MERS, SARS and the Wuhan coronavirus appear to cause more severe disease in older people, though uncertainty remains around the latest outbreak (爆发). Of the cases of Wuhan coronavirus reported so far, none are yet confirmed to be among children. The average age is people 40 or over.

尽管最近的武汉冠状病毒疫情仍不确定，但MERS、SARS和武汉冠状病毒似乎在老年人中会引起更严重的症状。在迄今报道的武汉冠状病毒病例中，尚未证实有儿童感染。感染者平均年龄在40岁以上。

5. 冠状病毒感染的治疗

Coronavirus treatmentThere is no specific treatment, but research is underway. Most of the time, symptoms willgo away on their own (自行消失) and experts advise seeking care early. If symptoms feel worse than a standard cold, see your doctor.Doctors can relieve (缓解) symptoms by prescribing (开处方) a pain or fever medication.

目前还没有具体的治疗方法，但研究仍在进行中。多数情况下症状会自行消失，但专家建议尽早寻求治疗。如果症状比标准感冒更严重，请看医生。

医生可以通过开止痛药或退烧药来缓解症状。

6. 武汉新型冠状病毒严重程度

Should you worry about the Wuhan coronavirus?The Wuhan coronavirus fatality rate (致死率) is lower than for SARS and MERS, but stillcomparable (相当) to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic (大流行病). The fatality rate is likely to be lower due to an "iceberg" of milder cases we are yet to find.

武汉冠状病毒死亡率低于SARS和MERS，但仍与1918年西班牙流感大流行相当。真实的病死率可能会更低，因为可能有大量较轻病例尚未发现。

7. 如何预防

How can you can prevent it?You may be able to reduce your risk of infection (感染) by avoiding people who are sick. Try to avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth. Wash your hands often with soap and water and for at least 20 seconds.Awareness is key. If you are sick and have reason to believe it may be the Wuhan coronavirus due to travel to the region or coming into contact with someone who has been there, you should let a health care provider know and seek treatment early.Cover your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze, and disinfect (消毒) the objects and surfaces you touch.

可以通过避开病人来降低感染的风险。尽量避免触摸眼睛、鼻子和嘴巴。经常用肥皂洗手，每次洗手至少20秒的时间。

预防意识是关键。如果你前往过武汉或与曾去过那里的人接触，有理由怀疑自己感染了武汉冠状病毒，应报告医疗机构并尽早寻求治疗。咳嗽或喷嚏时捂住口鼻，并对触摸的物体和表面进行消毒。

2015年埃博拉病毒爆发时，比尔·盖茨所做的TED演讲就指出：“如果有什么东西在未来几十年里杀掉上千万人，那更可能是一种高度传染性的病毒，而不是战争。不是导弹，而是微生物。”

When I was a kid, the disaster we worried about most was a nuclear war. That"s why we had a barrel like this down in our basement, filled with cans of food and water. When the nuclear attack came, we were supposed to go downstairs, hunker down, and eat out of that barrel.

当我还是个小孩时，我们最担心的灾难是核战争。这也是为什么我们会在地下室准备一个这样的桶，里边装满了罐头食物和水。当核战争爆发时，我们就躲去地下，蹲坐在地，吃光那个桶里储备的食物。

Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe doesn"t look like this. Instead, it looks like this. If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it"s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes. Now, part of the reason for this is that we"ve invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents. But we"ve actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic. We"re not ready for the next epidemic.

现如今全球性灾难的最大风险看起来已经不是这样了。而是像这样：如果有什么东西在未来几十年里杀掉上千万人，那更可能是一种高度传染性的病毒，而不是战争。不是导弹，而是微生物。对此，一部分原因是我们已经在核威慑上投入巨多，但我们在防止疫情的系统上却投入甚少。对于下一次疫情，我们还没有准备好。

Let"s look at Ebola. I"m sure all of you read about it in the newspaper, lots of tough challenges. I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools we use to track polio eradication. And as you look at what went on, the problem wasn"t that there was a system that didn"t work well enough, the problem was that we didn"t have a system at all. In fact, there"s some pretty obvious key missing pieces.

让我们看看埃博拉病毒。我相信你们所有人都在报纸上读到过有关新闻，充满了许多严峻的挑战。用我们追踪消灭脊髓灰质炎（小儿麻痹症）的案例分析工具，我仔细地追踪着它的发展。当你们关注疫情的发展时会发现，问题并不在于我们没有一套可以很好使用的系统，而在于我们根本没有任何系统。事实上，有一些关键因素明显缺失。

We didn"t have a group of epidemiologists ready to go, who would have gone, seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread. The case reports came in on paper. It was very delayed before they were put online and they were extremely inaccurate. We didn"t have a medical team ready to go. We didn"t have a way of preparing people. Now, Médecins Sans Frontières did a great job orchestrating volunteers. But even so, we were far slower than we should have been getting the thousands of workers into these countries. And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers. There was no one there to look at treatment approaches. No one to look at the diagnostics. No one to figure out what tools should be used. As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors, processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect them. But that was never tried.

我们没有这样一组准备就绪的病理学家，能去疫区看看病情，关注病情发展。病情报告都是通过报纸报道出来的。当信息被传到线上时就已经被耽误了，而且还极其不准确。我们也没有准备就绪的医护小组。我们没有一套让人们严阵以待的方法。目前，“无国界医生”在动员志愿者上做了特别多的工作。但即便如此，我们调动数千名工作者前往这些国家的速度还是远远不够迅速。大的疫情会需要我们调动数十万工作人员，但我们没有人研究治疗方法，没有人研究诊断方法，也没有人去想该用什么工具。举个例子，我们也许可以抽取生还者的血液，处理之后再将其血浆注入人体内来保护没得病的人。但这个方法从来没有试过。

So there was a lot that was missing. And these things are really a global failure. The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do these things I talked about. Now, in the movies it"s quite different. There"s a group of handsome epidemiologists ready to go, they move in, they save the day, but that"s just pure Hollywood.

所以我们错过了很多，而这些确实是全球性的失败。建立世界卫生组织的目的是监控流行病，而不是做我刚刚讲到的这些事。然而在电影中演的又是完全不同的：有一组帅气逼人的流行病学家准备就绪，他们进入疫区，转危为安，但这仅仅是纯好莱坞的剧情。

The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola. Let"s look at the progression of Ebola over this year. About 10,000 people died, and nearly all were in the three West African countries. There were three reasons why it didn"t spread more. The first is that there was a lot of heroic work by the health workers. They found the people and they prevented more infections. The second is the nature of the virus. Ebola does not spread through the air. And by the time you"re contagious, most people are so sick that they"re bedridden. Third, it didn"t get into many urban areas. And that was just luck. If it had gotten into a lot more urban areas, the case numbers would have been much larger.

如果准备不足，会导致下一场疫情比埃博拉病毒的危害更为显著致命。让我们看看埃博拉病毒在过去一年中的发展：大约一万人死亡，而且几乎所有死者都在西非的三个国家。没扩散的原因有三个：第一个得益于卫生工作人员所做出的许多英雄事迹，他们找到了感染的病人，阻止了更多的传染。第二个是由于病毒的特性，埃博拉病毒不能在空气中传播。等到你有足够的传染力时，大部分人已经病得卧床不起了。第三个是因为病毒没有传播到城区。这纯粹是运气好。如果病毒传到了大部分城区，那么死亡人数会更巨大。

So next time, we might not be so lucky. You can have a virus where people feel well enough while they"re infectious that they get on a plane or they go to a market. The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola, or it could be bioterrorism. So there are things that would literally make things a thousand times worse.

所以下一次我们可能不会这么幸运了。有的病毒可能让你毫无察觉，但当感染病毒的人乘飞机或者去逛商场，他们其实已经具有一定的传染力了。此外病毒的来源可以是天然的，像埃博拉病毒，或是由生物恐怖攻击产生的。所以可以让疫情惨烈上千倍的病毒是存在的。

In fact, let"s look at a model of a virus spread through the air, like the Spanish Flu back in 1918. So here"s what would happen: It would spread throughout the world very, very quickly. And you can see over 30 million people died from that epidemic. So this is a serious problem. We should be concerned.

事实上，让我们来看看一个通过空气传播的病毒模型，像1918年的西班牙流感。疫情有可能像这样发展：病毒会以非常快的速度在全世界范围内传播。你可以看到全球有三千万人死于这个疾病。所以这是个很严重的问题。我们应该重视。

But in fact, we can build a really good response system. We have the benefits of all the science and technology that we talk about here. We"ve got cell phones to get information from the public and get information out to them. We have satellite maps where we can see where people are and where they"re moving. We have advances in biology that should dramatically change the turnaround time to look at a pathogen and be able to make drugs and vaccines that fit for that pathogen. So we can have tools, but those tools need to be put into an overall global health system. And we need preparedness.

但事实上，我们可以建立一个切实有效的反应机制。我们拥有我们谈到的所有科学和技术的优势。我们拥有手机，可以从公众收集信息，再发布出去。我们有卫星地图，可以对人进行定位，并追踪他们的移动轨迹。我们的生物学也有了进步，可以大幅缩短我们找到病原的时间，并可以在很短的时间内发明解药和疫苗。所以我们是可以有工具的，但这些工具必须被整合到一个全球的健康系统中。而且我们需要时刻准备好。

The best lessons, I think, on how to get prepared are again, what we do for war. For soldiers, we have full-time, waiting to go. We have reserves that can scale us up to large numbers. NATO has a mobile unit that can deploy very rapidly. NATO does a lot of war games to check, are people well trained? Do they understand about fuel and logistics and the same radio frequencies? So they are absolutely ready to go. So those are the kinds of things we need to deal with an epidemic.

而我们如何做好准备，最好的例子还是来自于我们如何备战。对军人来说，他们是随时随地准备投入战争的。我们还有预备军人，能使备战人口大量增加。北约组织有个机动小组，可以很快地行动起来。北约组织有很多战争游戏可以测试人员是否已训练有素，他们是否了解燃油，补给和相同的收音机频率。是的话，那么他们就已准备好了。这些就是面对疫情时我们该做的准备。

What are the key pieces? First, we need strong health systems in poor countries. That"s where mothers can give birth safely, kids can get all their vaccines. But, also where we"ll see the outbreak very early on. We need a medical reserve corps: lots of people who"ve got the training and background who are ready to go, with the expertise. And then we need to pair those medical people with the military, taking advantage of the military"s ability to move fast, do logistics and secure areas. We need to do simulations, germ games, not war games, so that we see where the holes are. The last time a germ game was done in the United States was back in 2001, and it didn"t go so well. So far the score is germs: 1, people: 0. Finally, we need lots of advanced R&D in areas of vaccines and diagnostics. There are some big breakthroughs, like the Adeno-associated virus, that could work very, very quickly.

关键因素有哪些？第一，我们需要在贫穷的国家建立发达的卫生系统，以确保母亲们可以安全地生小孩，小孩们可以接种疫苗。而且我们也可以在非常早的时期察觉到疫情的爆发。我们需要后备的医疗部队：由许多具备医学背景并且训练有素的专业人员组成，并随时准备好带着他们的专业知识进入疫区。我们可以用军队来配合医护人员，利用军队移动迅速的特性，来进行后勤运输和维持安全。我们也需要进行情境模拟，不是战争游戏，而是病菌游戏，看看防卫漏洞在哪儿。上一次的病菌游戏还是2001年在美国进行的，而且并不顺利。目前的比分是病菌得一分而人类零分。最后我们在疫苗和病理学上还需要很多的研发工作(R&D：research and development研究与开发)。我们已经在某些方面例如腺相关病毒上取得了相当大的突破，这可以在很短的时间内生效。

Now I don"t have an exact budget for what this would cost, but I"m quite sure it"s very modest compared to the potential harm. The World Bank estimates that if we have a worldwide flu epidemic, global wealth will go down by over three trillion dollars and we"d have millions and millions of deaths. These investments offer significant benefits beyond just being ready for the epidemic. The primary healthcare, the R&D, those things would reduce global health equity and make the world more just as well as more safe.

我目前没有明确的预算这到底需要多少钱，但是我确信，跟潜在的损失比起来是比较便宜的。根据世界银行的估算，如果有流感疫情暴发，全球经济会损失三万多亿美元，可能还会有千百万人死亡。跟仅仅只是准备应对疫情比起来，这些额外的投资会带来显著的益处。基础的卫生保健和研发可以促进全球健康的平衡发展，让这个世界更健康更安全。

So I think this should absolutely be a priority. There"s no need to panic. We don"t have to hoard cans of spaghetti or go down into the basement. But we need to get going, because time is not on our side.

所以我觉得这应该绝对是重中之重。我们不需要惊慌。我们不需要囤积意大利面罐头或是躲到地下室去，但是我们必须马上行动起来，因为我们的时间有限。

In fact, if there"s one positive thing that can come out of the Ebola epidemic, it"s that it can serve as an early warning, a wake-up call, to get ready. If we start now, we can be ready for the next epidemic.

事实上，要说这场埃博拉病毒的疫情带来了什么正面影响的话，那就是它提早响起了警报，让我们觉醒并做好准备。我们如果马上开始准备，那么在下一场疫情来临前，我们是可以准备好的。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

流行病之 pandemic VS epidemic

Epidemic和pandemic这两个词频频在外媒报道中出现。那么到底应该用epidemic，还是pandemic呢？他们区别何在？

新冠病毒持续在全球传播之际，epidemic和pandemic这两个词比往常更频繁地在新闻报道中出现。尽管这两个词很相近，但二者指的不是同一种东西。

感染控制和流行病学专业人员协会（the Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology (APIC) ）在网站上解释道：

an epidemicoccurs when an infectious disease spreads rapidly to many people.”

当一种传染性疾病迅速传播给许多人时，就被称为epidemic。

Usually, what precedes an epidemic is an outbreak, or “a sudden rise in the number of cases of a disease.” An outbreak can affect a single community or several countries, but it’s on a much smaller scale than an epidemic.

通常，epidemic发生之前会有outbreak（疾病暴发），即“a sudden rise in the number of cases of a disease”（某种疾病案例的突然增加）。outbreak可能影响到单个社区或几个国家，但规模比epidemic小得多。

在《柯林斯英语词典》里，outbreak的意思是：

If there is an outbreak of something unpleasant, such as violence or a disease, it suddenly starts to happen.

例句：

The four-day festival ended a day early after an outbreak of violence involving hundreds of youths.一场有数百名年轻人卷入的暴力活动发生后，为期4天的节庆活动被迫提前一天结束。

epidemic的意思是：

If there is an epidemic of a particular disease somewhere, it affects a very large number of people there and spreads quickly to other areas.

例句：

A flu epidemic is sweeping through Moscow. 一场流感正席卷莫斯科。

如果一场epidemic得不到控制，并让它不断蔓延开来，公共卫生官员可能就要开始称之为pandemic，意思是 it’s affected enough people in different areas of the world to be considered a global outbreak（这场流行病已经影响到世界不同地区足够多的人，到了全球性暴发的程度）。

简而言之，pandemic就是全球性的流行病。pandemic感染的人更多，导致的死亡人数更多，还可能对社会和经济造成广泛的影响。1918年到1919年的西班牙流感在全世界导致2000万至4000万人丧生，这种流行病属于pandemic；离现在更近的2009年的甲型流感也是pandemic。

在《柯林斯英语词典》里，pandemic的意思是:

A pandemic is an occurrence of a disease that affects many people over a very wide area.

例句：

They feared a new cholera pandemic.他们担心新一轮的霍乱大流行。

但是，微妙之处在于，outbreak、epidemic和pandemic三者之间没有既成的区分体系。

2月24日，世界卫生组织（WHO）曾警告称，本次新冠肺炎疫情不能用pandemic来形容。

美国国家过敏和传染病研究所的所长安东尼·福奇（Anthony Fauci）曾表示：

It really is borderline semantics, to be honest with you. I think you could have people arguing each end of it. Pandemics mean different things to different people.

老实说，这确实是边界语义学。我想你会听到人们各执一词。不同的人对pandemic有不同的理解。

刘凯老师介绍：

刘凯，男，蒙古族，黑龙江省齐齐哈尔人。本科为哈尔滨师范大学英语系，硕士为北京理工大学。美国亚利桑那大学访问学者，澳大利亚新兰威尔士大学ESL研修。2018年加州理工学院语言学双学位获得者。

北京市优秀青年教师，北京市级重点高中示范校骨干教师，多年高中一线执教经验，高三年级把关教师，多次参与东城区模拟试题命题工作，教学理念先进，教学成果突出，多篇教学论文获市区级奖项。

教育部课题研究员，参与国家十二五课题计划，并作出突出贡献，参与初中、高中各年级区级试题的命制，多次承担区级和市级研究课任务。

北京市科技英语优秀指导教师，所带学生在各级英语口语、作文竞赛中多次获奖；刘凯老师将扎实的英语基本功和严谨的学术思想作为教学的基础，课堂上善于寓教于乐，信息量大，内容丰富，使学生在和谐的课堂气氛下欣赏英语、享受英语、掌握英语、运用英语。

曾多次参加高考阅卷工作，参与人民教育出版社、北京教育出版社、外研社等各类高考教学用书的编写工作，有丰富的备考经验，国际核心期刊发表多篇论文。

2009-2012年期间，多次受邀在北京广播电台主持英语高考大纲解析及英语新课程改革节目，学术功底深厚，兼具偶像派与实力派特点，教风亲切洒脱，诙谐幽默，思维开阔，屡有奇思妙想，善于引导学生学以致用，对高考动向把握极其准确，深受学生和家长欢迎。尤其擅长英语语法和单词记忆法。

海外生活学习十年，社科人文类学科偏爱者；10年雅思教龄，多家知名机构教师培训师；

指导上万考生快速冲刺雅思写作、阅读，平均分数7.5分；独创“段落清空”、极简化“针对检索式”阅读法等众多高效技法；

每年雅思考试均在10次以上；均分8+；真题回忆准确度97%以上；贴近西式思路和语言指导学生写作；善于帮助学生突破学术写作思维瓶颈。

讲授科目有长难句、翻译、四六级考试、阅读和写作；在2014、2015、2016、2017四年考研中，接受其培训的所有考生中有近万名考生取得高分。

资深考研培训讲师；

英语四六级考试天团高级讲师；

雅思阅读、雅思写作培训主讲名师；

六级考试阅卷组成员；

深谙命题规律和解题套路，对英语的学习规律和方法见解独特。

带给学生的不只是考分的提高，更多的是对英语领悟和感知的突破。纯正的英音、独到的见解、睿智的思维和轻松幽默的语言，为其赢得了广大学生的认同和喜爱。